Mornington Cup - 2400m, Mornington R8
What a fascinating race this is, particularly between the top four chances in the market. A Caulfield Cup berth for the winner is on the line.
Vow and Declare has the best overall staying credentials for this 2400m trip. He’s a Melbourne Cup winner, as well as a Caufield Cup and Australian Cup placegetter – but they were all more than three years ago.
He is having his best prep since then, second twice to Right You Are before only being beaten a length in the Tancred last start. He’s got 60kg’s, but has earnt them, and his form says he should be in this up to his ears.
Nonconformist is also a Caulfield Cup placegetter, has a Group 1 WFA placing to his age in the Caulfield Stakes, and showed his form early this prep having won the Blamey Stakes in fine style first up.
He strikes the Mornington Cup, which he ran second in two years ago, third-up – he’s won third-up three times in the past, including good races like the Coongy and Naturalism. He was just even in the Australian Cup last start, but must be in the thick of things.
Hezashocka has been a real surprise packet this season. He ran third to Zaaki and Mo’unga in the Mackinnon at $81, beating home Anamoe and I’m Thunderstruck, and proved that was no fluke in the Queen Elizabeth last start running fourth, finishing right alongside Mo’unga and Anamoe again.
The question mark on him is that he’s yet to win on a good track, and has twice been to the 2400-2600m range to be beaten more than 10 lengths each time. He’s clearly a much better horse now though, than he was back then.
Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace always seem to have a progressive older stayer in their ranks that just keeps improving, running well and winning. As a rising seven-year-old, Right You Are is that horse for them this year.
He had won five races in a row from December to March, before a second last start in the Easter Cup to a potential superstar in White Marlin. This is his first test beyond 2100m, but it shouldn’t be an issue on breeding.
While there are more than four horses in the race, these by far and away are the key chances, but it is going to be a race of tactics on this tight, turning circuit.
Right You Are should be the most forward of this quartet, pushing on from barrier 10. Vow and Declare, Nonconformist and Hezashocka all would prefer to be handy, but do have some versatility if things don’t pan out. Blake Shinn, on Hezashocka from gate 14, is going to need his wits about him.
Selections: 1.Right You Are 2.Nonconformist 3.Vow and Declare 4.Hezashocka
RIGHT YOU ARE
EACH-WAY
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
1 Comment
Some sound analysis here Cam. The cup is a really deep race this year, as it should be with the to let go the Caulfield Cup there on the line. I can’t see Right You Are getting the trip, especially after his setback. Jigsaw deserves favouritism but it’s a fair weight to lump for him! I like a few early in the card, hoping to raid the bookies early!!