Stradbroke Handicap - 1400m, Eagle Farm R8
The Stradbroke, Queensland’s greatest race, is worth $3 million this year, and has attracted a field worthy of the purse with a great deal of depth to it, including a handful of rising stars.
Despite an 18 horse field of a high quality, the early market is almost declaring it a match-race between Think About It and Hawaii Five Oh. Clearly, both horses have irresistible claims.
Think About It is the worthy favourite coming off his win at Group 1 WFA in the Kingsford Smith Cup, dropping down 5kg’s into this. That was his sixth win in a row, for a career record of eight from nine, he’s unbeaten on good tracks from half a dozen tries, and has won five races in the 1300-1400m range. The Joe Pride four-year-old will jump from barrier 8 if there are no scratchings, which is perfect for him, and we don’t know what his ceiling is yet.
Three-year-old Hawaii Five Oh gets in with 49.5kg’s, coming off two wins against his own age where he carried 57kg’s, and he’s drawn to get the run of the race. Like Think About It, he’s also on a sharp upward spiral, and his runs this campaign have been well spaced to ensure he should still have plenty in the tank. It’s hard to think that he won’t look the winner at some stage.
Three-year-old’s have won seven Group 1 races against the older horses in 2023 alone, so they simply have to be considered the main threat to the favourites, and it’s a good enough reason for Hawaii Five Oh to be promoted ahead of Think It Over in the selections.
The Maher/Eustace pair of Royal Merchant and Ruthless Dame have made the trek north to Brisbane after taking out Adelaide’s Group 1 sprint double, with The Goodwood and Robert Sangster Stakes respectively. They both started healthy double figure odds in those appearances, and will again here. Ruthless Dame might be the pick of these, given her form around In Secret and Jacquinot.
Unlike the Maher/Eustace pair, Godolphin’s Aft Cabin is yet to win a Group 1, even if he has been seen as a high quality three-year-old. His last start fourth to Giga Kick in the Doomben 10,000, beaten one and a half lengths, says he can win here. He isn’t as well weighted as Hawaii Five Oh though, carrying 3.5kg’s more.
Converge was second to Think About It in the Kingsford Smith, coming two starts after his close-up third to Anamoe and Fangirl in the George Ryder. It’s premium form, but he doesn’t quite have the weight advantage that others do, and he also hasn’t won a race for more than a year, and this a tough nut to crack.
There’s plenty of speed in the race, given the engagement of Rothfire, Scallopini and Gentleman Roy, and you feel it will be hard for those up front to win.
Cardinal Gem has the talent to win, but doesn’t appear well weighted on what he’s achieved, and would need it to be soft. Chain of Lightning makes appeal at $21 with only 52kg’s on her back – 1400m suits her now, she’s run good races behind Group 1 competitive horses this season, and is coming off a very good Stradbroke trial in the Sangster.
Palaisipan is perhaps the best absolute bolter, and you might get 100-1 on this Queensland mare that won the Dane Ripper on this day last year. She’s very honest, will enjoy no weight on her back, and has good form.
Selections: 1.Hawaii Five Oh 2.Aft Cabin 3.Think About It 4.Chain of Lightning
HAWAII FIVE OH
EACH-WAY
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
Be the first to comment