Ciaron Maher Stable Mail: 20.05.23

STABLE MAIL
19 MAY 2023

The theme continues this weekend as we send runners across four states again, with Royal Merchant looking to build on her excellent last start Group 2 victory in the Tobin Bronze Stakes, stepping out in the Group 1 Goodwood at Morphettville. She’ll need to defy the odds, jumping from the carpark in a race won only once in the past 32 years by a filly, though it is a race prone to throwing up a double-figure winner, with 20 of the past 33 being just that.

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Flemington Runners

RACE 3Stableline Sprint, 1100m

16. Mrs Chrissie | J: Ben Allen

After a stop-start campaign, Mrs Chrissie returned to the races showing us those barrier issues were a thing of the past. From the wide draw, she was able to use her speed to cross, lead and kick away to win by 4.75L under hands and heels. A tougher task presents here though, up in grade and down the Flemington straight. From barrier 1, Ben Allen will look to park on the speed in a race that looks likely to be run at a good tempo, presenting here as a nice top-three chance.

DANGERS: 9. SIGH, 2. OUR HEIDI, 15. VIVIANE

STABLE TIP

Each Way
20 May 13:00
Stableline (Bm70)
16. Mrs Chrissie Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 5SENTrack Supports The NJT Trophy, 2500m

3. Wil John | J: Thomas Stockdale

2021’s Jericho Cup champ, Wil John, steps out a month between runs after a pipe-opener over the 2100m. Off a huge break, his return was pleasing enough, only getting going late. His work since has been nice, with our data suggesting he’s handling it well, and continues to improve off that run. From barrier 4, Tom Stockdale, with the 1.5kg claim, will look to be in the front third, with speed coming from Golden Crusader, Hint Of Stars and Yarrawonga. Whilst he’s unlikely to be sharp enough here, he will have stripped fitter for that run and this is an open race.

DANGERS: 5. PESTO, 6. GOLDEN CRUSADER, 8. NEVER AGAIN, 13. WUDDZZ, 14. YARRAWONGA

STABLE TIP

No Bet
20 May 14:10
Sentrack Supports The Njt-Bm84
3. Wil John Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 6In Memory Of Dean Holland, 1800m

4. Convener | J: Blake Shinn

A step up to the 2000m with Blake Shinn aboard proved to be a winning formula for Convenor last time out. Riding in a manner suggesting he knew he was on the best horse, Blake kept him off the fence, rounding the field and producing a strong, sustained run from the 600m, putting them away upon straightening. In a race run at an even tempo, he ran the best last 600m and 200m of the race, improving three lengths on the rating he set last start. Back to the 1800m here due to limited suitable options over that trip, Blake will look to sit midfield and have him finish off. It’s hard to recommend a win bet here at the price and with the favourite looking hard to beat with the gun run, but beyond that, we do see very few dangers.

DANGERS: 11. ALTIVO, 5. DAYTONA BAY, 12. BOLD BOURBON

STABLE TIP

Win
20 May 14:45
In Memory Of Dean Holland-Bm84
4. Convener Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 73AW Sprint, 1100m

3. Easy Single | J: Thomas Stockdale

Easy Single has had excuses both times out this prep. First-up and over the 1000m, Mick Dee felt he was at his top throughout, which somewhat prevented him from picking up late, albeit he did work through the line well enough. Last time out and up to a distance more suited to having him settle in the run, he was unfortunately posted three-wide without cover and was entitled to tire upon straightening. Back to 1100m here with Tom Stockdale claiming 1.5kgs, he takes on a decent field in what is an open race. Will need to take on trust.

DANGERS: 1. ZAC DE BOSS, 5. RENOSU, 6. SACRED PALACE, 19. OUTBACK ACTION, 13. BOONIE

STABLE TIP

No Bet
20 May 15:25
3Aw (Bm90)
3. Easy Single Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

10. Pioneer River | J: Ms Linda Meech

Pioneer River returns here after two jumpouts, with blinkers off. Linda Meech will look to have him just off the speed, which is likely to come from Mr Mosaic, Renosu and Magnetic, in a race that looks set to be run at a decent tempo. He enjoys the straight, though he’s yet to win first-up, and will improve off this run.

DANGERS: 1. ZAC DE BOSS, 5. RENOSU, 6. SACRED PALACE, 19. OUTBACK ACTION, 13. BOONIE

STABLE TIP

No Bet
20 May 15:25
3Aw (Bm90)
10. Pioneer River Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 8VJA Winter Championship Trophy, 1600m

5. Maserartie Bay | J: Dean Yendall

Maseratie Bay returns here off a lengthy break after two jumpouts. From barrier 3, Dean Yendall will look to ride him where he’s comfortable, with speed coming from Keats and Bermadez. He has won first-up before, but they’re likely to be too sharp for him here. Look for him deeper in the prep.

DANGERS: 3. PINSTRIPED, 6. KEATS, 11. RIDDLE ME THAT, 13. LOGAN STREET LION

STABLE TIP

No Bet
20 May 16:05
Vja Winter C'ship Trophy-Bm100
5. Maserartie Bay Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

Rosehill Runners

RACE 1Schweppes Handicap, 1200m

1. Namesake | J: Regan Bayliss

Namesake has come through his second start well. He settled in the back third on that occasion, with the pace of the race 4.5L above average for the class. Needing to come wide on the turn, he picked up nicely, only to be beaten by the runner he toed into the race. The overall figures were above average for the class, and he’ll only have improved off that. From barrier 5, Regan Bayliss will look to ride him off the pace before balancing him up and hopefully giving us a glimpse of what he’s made of.

DANGERS:

STABLE TIP

Win
20 May 11:00
BEST VALUE
Schweppes Hcp
1. Namesake Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

8. Griff | J: Chad Schofield

Griff returns here off a freshen after a decent debut run, where he never really balanced up on the tight Kembla circuit. He trialled nicely enough in the lead-up to this, where he was taken back to settle off the speed. He worked home well under minimal pressure, albeit the overall time of the trial was slow. From barrier 6, in a race that appears to have plenty of speed, Chad Schofield will look to ride him where he’s comfortable, where he presents as a place bet at the current quote.

DANGERS: 2. CELESTIAL LEGEND, 6. JOEY DÓR, 1. NAMESAKE

STABLE TIP

Place
20 May 11:00
Schweppes Hcp
8. Griff Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 7Vale Ian Finn Handicap, 2400m

3. Strawberry Rock | J: Robbie Dolan

Strawberry Rock returns here a month between runs with a tick-over trial in between. He was taken back from the wide draw last time out, with the tempo being a very solid 7L above average. He was left a little flat-footed when they sprinted over the less-than-ideal 1800m trip, though worked to the line nicely late. His closing splits were some of the best in the race, which we trust indicates he has come back in good order and is in for a nice preparation. Up to 2400m here with a lack of speed in the race, we’ll look to have him off the pace, where he presents as an EW bet at the current quote.

DANGERS: 1. AL AABIR, 11. VIADELAMORE, 6. UNION GAP

STABLE TIP

No Bet
20 May 14:30
Vale Ian Finn (Bm78)
3. Strawberry Rock Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

6. Union Gap | J: Ms Alysha Collett

Union Gap will be chasing three on the bounce, and we've elected to run him here instead of Flemington. From barrier 9 in a race void of speed, Alysha Collett will look to be positive, pushing him across to take up a prominent spot in running, from where we see him being difficult to run down.

DANGERS: 1. AL AABIR, 11. VIADELAMORE, 3. STRAWBERRY ROCK

STABLE TIP

Win
20 May 14:30
BEST OF DAY
Vale Ian Finn (Bm78)
6. Union Gap Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 8Precise Air Handicap, 1500m

18. Verona | J: Tyler Schiller

Last year’s Frank Packer Plate winner, Verona, returns here after a trial over the 1200m. The 1500m here looks like a nice kick-off, but he will be one to watch later in the prep. Tyler Schiller will look to go back from barrier 15, from where we hope to see him hit the line nicely.

DANGERS: 2. DEMOCRACY MANIFEST, 12. SUBSTANTIAL, 16. KAYOBI, 6. COTEHELE

STABLE TIP

No Bet
20 May 15:05
Precise Air (Bm88)
18. Verona Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

Doomben Runners

RACE 4Magic Millions Pam O'Neill Stakes, 1600m

4. Zoe's Promise | J: Ben Thompson

Zoe's Promise as become a well-travelled filly, after appearances in VIC and NSW earlier this prep. She unfortunately missed the start last time out and had to settle at the rear of the field, completely unsuited to her racing style. In a race run at a very solid pace, at four lengths above average for the class, she was entitled to tire late after having to round the field on the turn. The overall figures out of the race were very strong, and it should be a good form race moving forward. From barrier 8, Ben Thompson will look to be positive from the gates, from where we hope to see her kick and give them something to chase down.

DANGERS: 2. PRETTY AMAZING, 11. TICK TOCK QUEEN, 16. STREET GOSSIP

STABLE TIP

Each Way
20 May 13:28
Magic Millions Pam O'neill
4. Zoe's Promise Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

Morphettville Runners

RACE 6Thomas Farms Centaurea Stakes, 2028m

9. Warm Smile | J: Jason Holder

Despite having not broken through for a win since her arrival to Australia, Warm Smile has only missed a place once this prep, with the last two runs near misses, by 0.3L and 0.2L, respectively. From barrier 1, the in-form Jason Holder will look to be positive with little predicted speed in the race. She’ll need to improve here but presents as an EW play at the current odds.

DANGERS: 8. THOUGHT PROVOKING, 4. CAP DE JOIE

STABLE TIP

Each Way
20 May 14:57
Thomas Farms Centaurea Stakes
9. Warm Smile Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 8The TAB Goodwood

16. Royal Merchant | J: Michael Dee

Royal Merchant simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Drawn the visitor’s alley, Mick Dee with 52.5kg will look to be positive, needing luck as they cross to take up a prominent position in running. This filly has obviously performed well in group company of late, but this is again another step up from her Group 2 win in the Tobin Bronze Stakes over this track and trip a fortnight back. With early luck, we know she’ll be trying her best at the business end.

DANGERS: 9. LOFTY STRIKE, 7. ZAPATEO, 4. KALLOS, 17. ANOTHER AWARD

STABLE TIP

Each Way
20 May 16:17
The Tab Goodwood
16. Royal Merchant Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

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