We have a strong team of runners across four states this weekend, with a few we think may surprise at odds. Promises Kept and Ain’t He Grand will look to give us a clean sweep of the Adelaide Carnival feature races, whilst a trio of runners will look to book their place in the Melbourne Cup, stepping out in the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m at Flemington.
CMR Team
4. Counttheheadlights | J: Michael DeeCounttheheadlights returns here after what was a disappointing first-up run, albeit the shorter trip and state of the track were to his disadvantage. He’s been given a month to recover, and has worked well in the lead-up to this. Back onto a good track and from barrier 9, Mick Dee will look to be positive from the gates with Eye Of The Eagle, Private Jumbo and Deekay likely to cross and kick up from the inside gate respectively. It’s an open race and with conditions to suit, he wouldn’t surprise running top three.
DANGERS: 1. LOUNGE BAR RUBI, 2. CASTILLIAN, 5. DEEKAY, 7. EYE OF THE EAGLE, 8. PRIVATE JUMBO
13. Arktika | J: Harry CoffeyArktika returns here after an extended break following two nice jumpouts, having raced well first-up before with success over this trip. With blinkers applied and from the favourable barrier, Harry Coffey will be able to have her in the box seat with speed coming across from the wide barriers. We expect her to run a big race here, presenting as a nice EW betting prospect at the current quote.
DANGERS: 1. GOOD AND PROPER, 6. RUMBLED AGAIN, 9. PARTY FOR ONE, 14. STAR OF CHAOS
2. Lethal Thoughts | J: Blake ShinnWe elected to run Lethal Thoughts here instead of the Adelaide Guineas. Blake Shinn again pilots having extracted the ability we know he is capable of showing last time out, taking a gap when it presented before pinning his ears and hitting the line strongly for a nice win. From barrier 1, he’ll likely need a similar gap to appear here albeit he has the benefit of a long Flemington straight. We think the market has it correct here seeing him as the one to beat.
DANGERS: 1. RUSSIAN DANCER, 3. TORONTO TERRIER, 4. EL SOLEADO
2. She's All Class | J: Ben MelhamHaving broken a winless streak dating back to December 2020 two starts back, She's All Class was a frustrating watch last time out. Having jumped awkwardly to all but end her chances of a win, she was able to run the second-best last 600m, 400m and 200m of the race. With not a great deal of speed here, we’ll look to be positive with Ben Melham to ride. The favourite looks hard to beat here, but we’re confident of a top-three finish, on her way to an appearance in the Brisbane Winter Carnival.
DANGERS: 1. BUFFALO RIVER, 3. JIMMY THE BEAR, 5. IT'SOURTIME, 4. D'JUMBUCK
12. Cadre Du Noir | J: Harry CoffeyCadre Nu Noir returns here a month between runs, with Harry Coffey down to ride (also booked for Alakahan). He was badly held up two starts back, and had to work very hard from the outside barrier to find his spot on the speed last time out, tiring late. Up to the 2800m and from barrier 6, Harry will look to have him jump positively with pace likely to come from Hezashocka, Rebel Racer and White Marlin. This race has a long tail, and we think he’ll run better than his price suggests.
DANGERS: 10. WHITE MARLIN, 3. HEZASHOCKA, 18. EL PATRONESS
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
14. Herman Hesse | J: Beau MertensHerman Hesse steps out here after a pleasing run in the Mornington Cup, running the second-fastest last 600m, 400m and 200m of the race, running to within a length of his career-best rating. He’s a genuine stayer who should have no problems stepping up to the 2800m, having raced over this trip in the UK prior to joining the stable. From barrier 3, Beau Mertens will look to be positive and have him box-seated behind the speed. Whilst not gaining any favours with the weights, this race has a long tail, and we see him having an EW chance to book his ticket into the Melbourne Cup.
DANGERS: 10. WHITE MARLIN, 3. HEZASHOCKA, 18. EL PATRONESS
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
19. Alakahan | J: Harry CoffeyThis has been the target race for Alakahan, following what was a frustrating run in the Sydney Cup. On the tough going and having jumped awkwardly, we were pleased with how close he was able to finish, being one of only a couple of runners who made ground in the straight. From barrier 8, Harry Coffey (also booked for Cadre Nu Noir) will look to ride him where he’s comfortable, getting into clear running in the straight where he can hopefully hit the line nicely. This race has a long tail, and we think he’ll also run better than his price suggests.
DANGERS: 10. WHITE MARLIN, 3. HEZASHOCKA, 18. EL PATRONESS
7. El Padrino | J: Will PriceEl Padrino returns here second-up, after kicking off in the VOBIS Gold Dash. He held a gallop to the line there, in what was a slowly run race, with the winner, third and fourth sitting first, second and third in the run. We’ve elected to keep him at the 1200m for now, and from barrier 16 Will Price with 52.5kgs will look to get a cart off the leaders, before hitting the line strongly in what we hope is an improved showing. It’s an open race, but one we’re keen to just watch and cheer.
DANGERS: 1. RENOSU, 2. AIRMAN, 5. REDZOUST, 9. MIDTOWN BOSS
7. Mayfair Spirit | J: Andrew GibbonsMayfair Spirit has pulled up well following his run in the Orange Cup over the 2100m. The inside draw was unlikely to have assisted his cause there with the better ground being on the outside of the track, albeit he fought strongly to the line. Dropping 400m and back to a BM78 on a good track, we’ll look to come across with Highlights and be prominent in running with cover. With not a lot of depth, conditions to suit, and some of the main hopes drawn wide, we’re hopeful he can sneak into the money.
DANGERS: 5. ESTADIO MESTALLA, 4. CLAIM THE CROWN, 8. UNSPOKEN, 14. FLOATING
9. Promises Kept | J: Mark ZahraPromises Kept is a progressive type stepping out for the stable for the first time here, having run nine lengths above class average last time out to win the St Leger Trial over 2200m. The market has given credence to his ability off that run as he finds himself prominent in the market, behind a deserving favourite. Mark Zahra heads over to take the ride, and from barrier 9 we’ll look to be positive, sitting a couple of pairs off the leaders, getting him into clear running on the turn before hopefully seeing his best which has him fighting out the finish here.
DANGERS: 16. SHE'S FIT, 10. AIN'T HE GRAND, 1. SUIZURO, 7. LOCO, 5. RED SUN SENSATION
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
10. Ain't He Grand | J: Ben AllenAin't He Grand pulled up well following his run in the Frank Packer Plate, where he was unfavoured by the sit-and-sprint affair in the small field. He’s unlikely to see that scenario here, with strong tempos usually present in these big fields. From the visitors’ draw, Ben Allen will need early luck in having him navigate a passage across to find cover, from where we’ll hope he can get a toe into the race from a good one. If luck does come his way and the deserving favourite strikes trouble, he could be a knockout chance at the price.
DANGERS: 16. SHE'S FIT, 9. PROMISES KEPT, 1. SUIZURO, 7. LOCO, 5. RED SUN SENSATION
13. Secret Glamour | J: Craig WilliamsSecret Glamour is looking to go back-to-back with Craig Williams to ride this time out. The likely improving track should suit, though the lack of speed in the race will work against her here. Of the pace, we see Cepheus and Nerve Not Verve leading the field up, with our girl ridden where she’s comfortable, likely to be in the second half of the field. It’s an open race void of much depth for a Group 3, and if she runs up to her last start performance, we expect her to be competitive here.
DANGERS: 3. CEPHUS, 8. KALAPOUR
PAUL SNOWDEN
HEAD TRAINER
It’s a much smaller contingent for the stable this Saturday but hopefully we have a bit of luck. All the best to our connections.
TONY GOLLAN
HEAD TRAINER
A small team heads to Doomben this Saturday. Transatlantic aims to back up his impressive last start win in race five and Star Of Chaos takes on stablemate Brentwood in the last. Good luck to all connections! Gollan Racing Team
CIARON MAHER
HEAD TRAINER
We’ll hope to keep the good times rolling and have a huge hand entered to do just that, headlined by ESTRIELLA in the Sunlight Classic, PRIDE OF JENNI doing battle in the Australian Cup, RUTHLESS DAME in the Emancipation, ASHRUN in the Tancred and ANOTHER WIL and BERKSHIRE SHADOW in the Doncaster Prelude. Good luck […]
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